Monday 13th July 2020

Covid -19 Analysis by Dr. Parvez Hayat, IPS

Jun 1st, 2020 4:31 pm | By | Category: SPECIAL NEWS COVERAGE

Dr. Parvez Hayat, former IPS

Dr. Parvez Hayat, former IPS

#Covid -19 Analysis by #Dr Parvez Hayat,IPS, PhD (Disaster Management) India need to redefine its metrics and parameters,doubling rate as such has no significance. We take data of @ USA: cases 17.9 Lakhs| tests 1.68 Cr, doubling rate slowest : Do the doubling rate has any significance, If we go back and see since India now has 1,8000 cases , and compare when @ USA had almost similar number of cases , how much USA was testing and how much India is testing , if India tested in 23/25 lakhs , USA tested at that stage in several millions , that matter more than doubling of cases. if we test more , isolate the affected , even if that patient is asymptomatic or v little symptoms and he is isolated , one affected person can infect in hundreds. Likewise, @Germany tested highest in Europe, treated early , so was death rate lowest in Europe, data transparency is more important to control the disease, India: cases 1.7 Lakhs | tests 36 Lakhs USA has tested more than the next 9 countries combined (barring Russia) showing doubling rate slowest , how significant is then doubling rate , when death rate is higher in # USA , death rate is measured by total registered positive cases , then we take the percentage , still the correct figure will never come since all countries are not testing both symptomatic and asymptomatic patients.. India too as perc @ICMR guidelines , testing only symptomatic cases , that too certain states , test less .India has very good recovery rate and less death rates due to demographic advantages since median age is only 29 years compared to Europe where it is 41.2-44 years and therefore Europe countries having aging population had more death rates , only exception is that of Germany since they tested the highest 150,000/ per week and tested both symptomatic and asymptomatic cases as well and @Germany treated them at early stages , with the results ,the patients recovered in second stage when little respiratory help with oxygen is required , tried to not let patients slip into third stage where ventilators may be required from where 96% don’t come back alive. India is talking about doubling rate , any epidemiologist shall not consider this jargon , if @USA has over 1.5 crore cases , doubling rate shall be slowest . To me as Disaster researcher , India should redefine performance metrics and parameters, India must test more so that positive cases get identifies early and they don’t infect others and follow Sweden model , let 85% population get infections nothing will happen since we have second largest youth population, soon herd immunity will be achieved in 3/4 months and elderly and kids be kept at home , social distancing , medical hygiene , wearing masks mandatorily must continue . lifestyle needs to undergo change , more work from home , less physical meetings in offices , VC / google meet will become a routine meeting mode,office spaces , markets places , public places, airports, railway platform , hospitals etc. need to be redesigned.

The writer is a retired IPS Officer who has served in various key positions as CVO- PGIL, ADG BP&RD GoI, etc.

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